• Speaker: Patrizia Pérez Asurmendi (ICAE-UCM)
• Title: The Choquet integral in the construction of composite indexes: The case of the Sustainable Society Index
• Invited by: C. Rodríguez-Alvarez (ICAE-UCM)

• Speaker: Laura Garcia-Jorcano (UCLM)
• Title: : Forecasting the climate change risk by sea-level rises using time-varying extreme value analysis
• Invited by: L. Robles (ICAE-UCM)

• Speaker: Lidia Sanchis-Marco (UCLM)
• Title: Spillover effects between commodity and stock markets: A SDSES approach
• Invited by: L. Robles (ICAE-UCM)

• Speaker: Agustín Casas (CUNEF)
• Title: Checks and balances and Nation Building: The Spanish Constitutional Court and the Support for Independence
• Invited by: M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)

• Speaker: Javier Ojea-Ferreiro (JRC-European Commission)
• Title: Exchange rates and the global transmission of equity market shocks
• Invited by: J-A. Jimenez-Martin (ICAE-UCM)
• Abstract: We assess the role played by exchange rates in buffering or amplifying the propagation of shocks across international equity markets. Using copula functions we model the joint dependence between exchange rates and two global equity markets and, from a copula framework, we obtain the conditional expectation and measure the exchange rate contribution to shock propagation between those equity markets. Our estimates for emerging Latin American economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) and two developed markets (Europe and the USA) document the following: (a) the contribution of exchange rates to the transmission of equity shocks is time varying and asymmetric and differs across countries; and (b) exchange rates diversify shocks from abroad for investors based in emerging economies (particularly Brazil, Chile and Mexico) and echo the effect of shocks from abroad for investors based in developed markets. This evidence has implications for international investors in terms of portfolio and risk management decisions.

• Speaker: Alejandro Buesa (BdE, PhD UCM)
• Title: Risky mortgages, credit shocks and cross-border spillovers
• Invited by: C. Rodríguez-Alvarez (ICAE-UCM)
• Abstract: This paper describes a novel methodology of measuring risky and conservative mortgage credit using household survey data for 18 European countries and the United Kingdom. In addition, we construct time series for both types of credit and embed them into a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, so as to study how shocks to both variables affect domestic output and propagate across countries through cross-border banking exposures. The results show that a decrease in risky credit can have long-lasting positive effects on GDP, both in the originating country and its most exposed peers, while a fall in conservative credit is detrimental. In some geographies, negative shocks to both types of credit reduce output, a feature linked to the lower relevance of homeownership which implies that mortgage credit plays a less prominent role in the domestic economy.

• Speaker: Antonio Nicoló (Univ Padova)
• Title: A Commitment Theory of  Populism
• Invited by: C. Rodríguez-Alvarez (ICAE-UCM)
• Abstract:
  We propose a theory of populism as simplistic or unconditional commitment. Economic crises as well as social and cultural threats may be responsible for increased demand of simple credible policies, and reduced trust in the ability and reliability of representative politicians without policy commitments. We show under what conditions politicians choose to supply simplistic commitments in equilibrium and how this choice interacts with competence, antielite rhetoric and complementary fake news strategies. Whenever an equilibrium exists with one party choosing populist commitments and the other choosing delegation to experts, the former is always the one displaying lower moral universalism. Nationalism, closed border policies and protectionism are examples of commitment demands that reflect reduced moral universalism. When the desire for simple commitments increases, there can be also low political information when uncommitted politicians win.

• Speaker: Irene Ródenas Monedero (Phd -UCM)
• Title: Análisis de políticas de empleo en un entorno de modelos de búsqueda y crecimiento endógeno
• Invited by:  J. Ruíz Andujar (ICAE-UCM)

• Speaker: Alex Trew (Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow)
• Title: Fighting for Growth: Labor Scarcity and Technology Adoption during the British Industrial Revolution, (with Bruno Caprettini, UZH and Joachim Voth, UZH)
• Invited by: M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)
• Abstract: Can labor scarcity accelerate technological adoption? We examine the effects of military recruitment during the Napoleonic Wars on the adoption of labor-saving technology in England, 1800-1850. Where the Royal Navy recruited more sailors, more machines that economized on (male) labor were adopted. Using depth of the seabed in front of coastal parishes, we show that exogenous shocks to labor scarcity led to technology adoption. This in turn led to both faster structural change as well as technological improvements through learning-by-doing effects.

• Speaker: Anett Erdmann (ESIC Business & Marketing School) 
• Title: The long-run outcome of SEO keyword choice: Cost convergence and relative cost elasticity of website traffic.
• Invited by: E. Huergo (ICAE-UCM)

• Speaker: M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)
• Title: The Psychological Effect of a Math Signal
• Invited by: C. Rodríguez-Alvarez (ICAE-UCM)
• Abstract: This paper tests whether barely obtaining a pass score in at least one of two midterm tests has an effect on subsequent achievement in a Math course. To estimate the effect, we created a novel dataset by linking administrative and survey data on students at a medium size Spanish University and used a regression discontinuity design in which the cutoff is 5, i.e. the pass score in the national grading system. Although obtaining a score just equal to or barely greater than 5 in midterm tests has no immediate consequence for students, it may have a psychological effect by acting as a (de)motivating signal to study and pass the course, with the sign of the effect being unclear ex-ante. We find that obtaining a pass score in at least a midterm has a positive effect on the final exam score. The result can be rationalised by students’ ability to obtain a final exam score that when averaged along with the midterm tests scores leads to a pass score in the course, a proxy for rationality. Overall, our results suggest that partly unexplored psychological mechanisms may help us deepen our understanding of the determinants of achievement in Math.

• Speaker: José Montalbán-Castilla (SOFI- Stockholm University)
• Title:Home Broadband and Human Capital Formation" (con Rosa Sanchís-Guarner y Felix Weinhardt)
• Invited by: C. Rodríguez-Alvarez (ICAE-UCM)

• Speaker: Judit Vall Castello (Universitat de Barcelona & Researcher at @FundacioIEB & at CRES-UPF)
• Title: Living at the peak: Health and public finance during the Covid-19 pandemic
• Invited by: M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)
• Abstract: This paper provides novel evidence for the determinants of preferences for public health and the willingness to pay for health services using a survey experiment implemented during the third week of the lock-down in Spain (first wave) as well as during the last days of July (second wave). At the time of our experiment the confirmed COVID-19 cases reached the 100k mark in Spain and 1 million worldwide. We collect information on several health outcomes, which we are able to benchmark with results from previous surveys. Results show a substantial deterioration of mental health, which is more pronounced in groups of the population with less stable income sources and the younger group of individuals. Furthermore, we implement two information treatments about the fatality rate across age groups and the incidence rate across regions. In the first case, the treatment is stronger for those in, or with relatives in the risk group. The fact that regions are on different parts of the trajectory creates variation across regions in the second treatment. We ask participants about their preferred budget allocation, which we can again benchmark against the enacted budget and previous surveys. Results suggest that preferences for health care expenditures have almost doubled. Furthermore, we ask respondents about their willingness to pay for one out of three randomly assigned health care improvements. Contributions for more ICU beds are significantly higher compered to medical treatments and a vaccine

• Speaker: Warn Lekfuangfu (UC3M)
• Title: Raised by grandparents: the effects of growing up in skipped generation households on later-life educational attainment" (with Tanyamat Srungbunmee, Khonkaen University, Thailand)
• Invited by: M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)
• Abstract: This paper explores the long-run effects of parental absence during multiple stages of childhood on later-life educational attainment. We look at the specific case of children in skipped generation families who grew up in households where grandparents are primary caregiver, and both parents were absent for an extended period. To deal with the endogeneity of family choices and parental migration, we exploit a plethora of fixed effect estimations (locality, birth cohort and sibling fixed effects) and instrumental variable design. Using a longitudinal household survey, the Townsend Thai Data, our estimates show that early childhood experience of growing up in skipped generation households harms schooling outcomes later in life. We provide evidence that grandparent-headed households with parental absence also spent less on children’s education despite having received higher remittances.

• Speaker: Socorro Puy (U. de Málaga)
• Title: Constitutions, Federalism and National Integration
• Invited by: C. Rodríguez-Alvarez (ICAE-UCM)
• Abstract: A constitution defines a vertical and horizontal division of power. The vertical division is the power that regions transfer to the national government; the horizontal division is the relative power of each region in the national legislature. We explore what combinations of vertical and horizontal division of power arise when forming a nation or a union, and which combinations reduce the risk of dissolution. We present a new model of political bargaining among heterogeneous regions that design a common constitution. We show that scale economies translate into higher centralized systems, whereas cultural and political heterogeneity translate into more decentralized federal systems. Interestingly, the constitutions that minimize the risk of secession compensate with proportionally more power in the national legislature those regions that have less to gain economically from national integration. Such division of power contrast with other widely used that assign equal power to each region or power in proportion to population size. Our results suggest that compensations in the constitutional process need not be accomplished through direct transfers; it can be accomplished through the legislative process.

• Speaker: Christos Ioannou (U Paris 1)
• Title: Describing and Understanding the Long Run in Repeated Games
• Invited by: M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)

• Speaker: D. Rees (U Colorado, US)
• Title: The Federal Effort to Desegregate Shouthern Hospitals and the Black-White Infant Mortality Gap
• Invited by:M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)

• Speaker: M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)
• Title: A Beam of Light: Media, Tourism and Economic Development
• Invited by: C. Rodríguez-Alvarez (ICAE-UCM)

Gallery:

• Speaker: J. Moreno Ternero (U. Pablo Olavide)
• Title: On the axiomatic approach to sharing the revenues from broadcasting sports leagues (joint with Gustavo Bergantiños, U Vigo)
• Invited by: C. Rodríguez-Alvarez (ICAE-UCM)

Gallery:

• Speaker: Antonio Miralles (U Autònoma Barcelona - Barcelona GSE, Universitá Palermo)
• Title: Constrained Pseudo-Market Equilibrium
• Invited by: C. Rodríguez-Alvarez (ICAE-UCM)

Gallery:

• Speaker:  Javier Valbuena (U. de Zaragoza)
• Title: Youth unemployment and stigmatization over the business cycle in Europe.
• Invited by: M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)

Gallery:

• Speaker: Miguel Almunia (CUNEF)
• Title: Venting Out: Exports during a Domestic Slump
• Invited by: L.Puch (ICAE-UCM)

Gallery:

• Speaker: Danilo Leiva Leon (Banco de España)
• Title: Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions
• Invited by: L.Puch (ICAE-UCM)

•  Speaker: Michele Rosenberg (Northwestern)
• Title: Tell Me What You Grow and I'll Tell You What You Think: Westward Expansion and the Politics of Slavery in the US South (with Federico Masera, U New South Wales)
• Invited by: C. Rodríguez  (ICAE-UCM)

Gallery:

• Speaker: P. Brañas Garza (U Loyola)
• Title: Paper 1: To pay or not to pay: Measuring risk preferences in lab and field & Paper 2: Paid and hypothetical time preferences are the same: Lab, field and online evidence
• Invited by: M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)

Gallery:

• Speaker: Jaime Millán (U Navarra)
• Title: Oiling up the field. Forced internal displacement and the expansion of palm oil in Colombia (with Sebastián Pulgarín)
• Invited by: M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)

Gallery:

• Speaker: Scott Kostyshak (U Florida)
• Title: The Partial Monotonicity Parameter: A Generalization of Regression Monotonicity
• Invited by: M. Sartarelli  (ICAE-UCM)

Gallery:

• Venue: : Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, and a Virtual Workshop. Campus de Somosaguas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid.
• Local Organizers:  Antonia Díaz and Luis Puch

• Venue: : Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, and a Virtual Workshop. Campus de Somosaguas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid.
• Local Organizers:  Antonia Díaz and Luis Puch