10 feb 2016 - 20:29 CET

El miércoles 17 de mayo, tendremos la siguiente sesión del ciclo de primavera del seminario de investigación de la facultad. Los datos del seminario son los siguientes:

•             Día, hora y lugar: 17 de mayo, 15:30, Salón de Grados

•             Ponente:  Jaime Pinilla (Universidad de Las Palmas). Discussant : Camilo Lebón Sánchez

•             Título: “Partial bans on smoking in public places fail, only a total tobacco ban works: inferring the casual impact on cigarette sales using an interrupted time series analysis”

Resumen: 

In January 2006, the Spanish government enacted a tobacco control law which, among other aspects, banned smoking in bars and restaurants, with exceptions depending on the floor space of the premises. This approach became known as the "Spanish Model". In January 2011, further legislation in this area was adopted, removing these exceptions. In this paper, we estimate the effect of these two bans on cigarette sales. We approach this problem using an interrupted time series analysis accounting for potential effects of autocorrelation and seasonality. The data source used was the official data on legal sales of tobacco in Spain, from January 2000 to December 2015 (excluding Canary Islands and the Autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla. As confounder variables, we use the average minimum excise tax for manufactured and hand rolling cigarettes and log-transformed household disposable income at 2000 prices. According to our results, the implementation of a total smoke-free ban in Spain, law 42/2010, was associated with immediate cigarette sales reduction. After adjusting for time trend, seasonal variation and confounder variables, this reduction remains with a 9.41% (P<0.05, CI=-18.02; -0.81) average decrease, indicating that the total removal of exposure to tobacco smoke was effective in the quitting process of the smoking population. In contrast, in period immediately following the partial ban intervention, law 28/2005, no cigarette sales reductions were detected, beyond the gradual trends effects. Our results indicate that, in Spain, partial bans on smoking in public places fail, only a total tobacco ban works.

Contamos con vuestra presencia.