International Economics

Our research in International Economic Analysis studies the aspects most relevant to global economic relations, specifically the following:

  • The study of the evolution of the global economy, with special attention given to the processes of integration and globalization, regional and aggregate, and their possible impacts on business strategies.
  • Providing information and statistical analysis to help scholars navigate the realities of the global economy.
  • The development of studies and research both for academia and the public at large.
  • The organization of and participation in courses and seminars related to the study of international economics.

As a part of this effort, Vicente Donoso and Victor Martín are developing a research program that focuses on the competitiveness of Spanish trade and analyzes the sustainability of external deficits within the framework of the European Union and emerging countries in Latin America and Asia.



Projects / Collaborations / Activities
  • “Factors within the underground economy: Evidence for the OCDE." Head of Research. Funded by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IEF013/2013, IP: simón Sosvilla), 2012-2013.
  • “The Behavior of Currency Markets: New Information, Predictive Capacity and Exchange Regimens”. Funded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation as part of the Program of General Fundamental Research (ECON2011-23189, IP Jorge Pérez), 2012-2014.
  • "Identificación y Predicción de Shocks Sistémicos. Análisis de los Determinantes Macroeconómicos de los Riesgos Financieros y sus Implicaciones Transversales". Financiado por el Banco de España dentro de su Programa de Ayudas a la Investigación en Macroeconomía, Economía Monetaria, Financiera y Bancaria e Historia Económica, 2016-2017. Investigador Colaborador.

Publications

  • "Price Convergence in the European Car Market", Applied Economics, Vol. 40, 2008, pp. 241-250
  • "An Eclectic Approach to Currency Crises: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience", Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 18, 2008, pp. 503-519
  • "European Cohesion Policy and the Spanish Economy: A Policy Discussion Case", Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 30, 2008, pp. 559-570
  • "Macroeconomic Instability in the European Monetary System?", Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 18, 2008, pp. 965-983
    "Political and Institutional Factors in Regime Changes in the ERM: An Application of Duration Analysis", The World Economy, Vol. 31, 2008,  pp. 1049-1077
  • "The Credibility of the European Monetary System: A Review", Cuadernos de Economía, 2008, Vol. 31, No. 86, pp. 5-34
  • "Implicit Exchange Regimes in Central and Eastern Europe: A First Exploration", International Economics and Economic Policy, Vol. 6, 2009, 179-206
  • "Structural Breaks in Volatility: Evidence for the OECD and non OECD Real Exchange Rates", Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 29, 2010, 139-168
  • "Linkages in International Stock Markets: Evidence from a Classification Procedure", Applied Economics, Vol. 42, 2010, pp. 2081-2089
  • "Implicit Bands in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate", Applied Economics,    Vol. 43, 2011, pp. 1241-1255
  • "Detecting Trends in the Foreign Exchange Markets", Applied Economics Letters, Vol.19, 2011, pp. 493-503
  • "Exploiting Trends in the Foreign Exchange Markets", Applied Economics Letters, Vol.19, 2011, pp. 591-597
  • "Teorías del Tipo de Cambio", Información Comercial Española, No. 858, 2011, pp. 23-38.
  • "Genetic Algorithm for Arbitrage with More than Three Currencies", Technology and Investment, Vol. 3, 2012, pp. 181-186
  • "The Euro and the Volatility of Exchange Rates", Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 21, 2011, pp. 1235–1253
  • "Volatility in EMU Sovereign Bond Yields: Permanent and Transitory Components", Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 22, 2012, pp. 1453-1464
  • "Convergence in Car Prices Among European Countries", Applied Economics, Vol. 44, 2012, pp. 3247-3254
  • "On Factors Explaining the 2008 Financial Crisis", Economics Letters, Vol. 115, 2012, pp. 215-217
  • "Historical Financial Analogies of the Current Crisis", Economics Letters, Vol. 116, 2012, pp. 190-192
  • “El Euro y la Volatilidad de los Tipos de Cambio”, Perspectivas del Sistema Financiero, No. 140, 2012, pp. 47-55.
  • “The US Dollar-euro Exchange Rate and US-EMU Bond Yield Differentials: A Causality Analysis”, Cuadernos de Economía, Vol. 35, 2012, pp. 117-128
  • "On the Forecast Accuracy and Consistency of Exchange Rate Expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey", Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 20, 2013, pp.107-110
  • "Granger-Causality in Peripheral EMU Public Debt Markets: A Dynamic Approach", aceptado para su publicación en Journal of Banking and Finance,2013
  • "An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of the Shadow Economy", Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 21, 2014, pp. 304-307
  • "Real Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Crises and Exchange-Rate Regimes", Applied Economics, Vol. 46, 2014, 826-847 
  • "Exchange-rate Regimes and Economic Growth: An Empirical Evaluation", Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 21, 2014, pp. 870 - 873 
  • "Causality and Contagion in EMU Sovereign Debt Markets", International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 33, 2014, 12-27 
  • "An Update on EMU Sovereign Yield Spread Drivers in Times of Crisis: A Panel Data Analysis", North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 30, 2014, pp. 133-153 
  • "Growth Dynamics, Financial Crises and Exchange-rate Regimes", Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 22, 2015, pp. 767-771 
  • "Further Evidence on the Failure of the Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination", Applied Economics, Vol. 47, 2015, pp. 4607-4629 . 
  • "Detection of Implicit Fluctuation Bands and their Credibility in EU Candidate Countries", Baltic Journal of Economics, Vol. 15, 2015, pp. 18-37
  • "Bank Risk Behavior and Connectedness in EMU Countries", Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 57, 2015, pp. 161-184 
  • Volatility Spillovers in EMU Sovereign Bond Markets”, International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 39, 2015, pp. 337-352 
  • The Causal Relationship between Public Debt and Economic Growth in EMU Countries”, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 37, 2015, pp. 974–989 
  • "Causes and hazards of the euro area sovereign debt crisis: Pure and fundamentals-based contagion", Economic Modelling, Vol. 56, 2016, 133–147
  • “A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: The role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes”, Applied Economics, Vol. 48, 2016, pp. 2156-2169
  • "Sovereign-Bank linkages: Quantifying directional intensity of risk transfers in EMU countries",  Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 63, 2016, 137-164
  • “Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate: First Results from Time-Series Analysis”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 23, 2016, 732-735  
  • “Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate: Further evidence from event studies”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 23, 2016, 835-839  
  • "Sovereign-Bank linkages: Quantifying directional intensity of risk transfers in EMU countries", Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 63, 2016, 137-164  
  • “A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: The role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes”, Applied Economics, Vol. 48, 2016, pp. 2156-2169  
  • "Portfolios in the Ibex 35 before and after the Global Financial Crisis", Applied Economics, Vol. 48, 2016, pp. 3826-3847 
  • "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Vol. 43, 2016, pp.126-145

 


 


Participation in international conferences

  • "EMU sovereign debt markets crisis: Fundamental-based or pure contagion?", 12th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, Monash University Prato Centre, Prato, (Italia), 9 y 10 de Junio de  2014.
  • "Evidence of Banking Sector Systemic Risk Behaviour in EMU Countries",  International Conference on Economic and Financial Risks, organizada conjuntamente por el Institute of Industrial, Insurance and Financial Risk y el Research Centre on Economic and Financial Integration, Université de Poitiers, Poitiers, 12 a 13 de Junio de  2014.
  • "Evidence of Banking Sector Systemic Risk Behaviour in EMU Countries", 6th International Conference de la  International Finance and Banking Society (IFABS), ISCTE Business School, Lisboa, 18 a 20 de Junio de  2014.
  • "Causality and Contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets", 23rd European Financial Management Association Conference, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Roma, 25 a 28 de Junio de 2014.
  • "Modelling Residential Prices with Cointegration Techniques and Automatic Selection Algorithms", 21st Annual Conference, European Real Estate Society, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Burarést, 25 a 28 de Junio de 2014. Esta ponencia recibió el premio al major trabajo de doctorado presentado en la conferencia. 
  • "An update of EMU sovereign yield spreads drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis", XV Conference on International Economics, Universidad de Salamanca, 26 y 27 de Junio de 2014.
  • "Exchange-rate regimes and inflation: An empirical evaluation", XV Conference on International Economics, Universidad de Salamanca, 26 y 27 de Junio de 2014.
  • "Sovereign and banks in the euro area: A tale of two crises", 14th Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES), Barcelona, 23 a 25 de Octubre de 2014.
  • "Detection of implicit fluctuation bands and their credibility in the European Union countries", Reunión Anual de la Association of Southern European Economic Theorists (ASSET), Aix-en-Provence (Francia), 6 a 8 de Noviembre de 2014.
  • "Sovereign and banks in the euro area: A tale of two crises", 2nd Paris Financial Management Conference, Paris (Francia), 15 y 16 de Diciembre de 2014.
  • "Financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility: A connectedness analysis", JSPS EU-Japan Joint Workshop on Regional Integration Processes through Trade and Investment Flows, organizado por la Kwansei Gakuin University y la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 20 de Febrero de 2015.
  • "Detection of fluctuations bands and their credibility in the EU countries", 79th International Atlantic Economic Conference, Milán (Italia), 11 a 14 de Marzo de 2015.
  • "Modelling residential prices with cointegration techniques and automatic selection algorithms", 31st Annual Meeting de la American Real Estate Society, Fort Myers, Florida (Estados Unidos), 14 a 18 de Abril de 2015.
  • "Financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond markets" volatility: A connectedness analysis", 9th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, University of Crete, Creta (Grecia), 28 a 30 de Mayo de 2015.
  • "Sovereigns and Banks in the Euro Area: A Tale of Two Crises”, 2015 Annual Meetings de la European Financial Management Association, Nyenrode Business University, Amsterdam (Países Bajos), 24 a 27 de Junio de 2015.
  • "A Tale of Two Crises in the Euro Area: Banks and Sovereigns”, XV Conference on International Economics, Universidad de Deusto, San Sebastián, 25 y 26 de Junio de 2015.
  • "De Facto Exchange-rate Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries”, XV Conference on International Economics, Universidad de Deusto, San Sebastián, 25 y 26 de Junio de 2015.
  • “Financial Stress Transmission in EMU Sovereign Bond Market Volatility: A Connectedness Analysis”, XV Conference on International Economics, Universidad de Deusto, San Sebastián, 25 y 26 de Junio de 2015.
  • “Short-run and Long-run Effects of Public Debt on Economic Performance:  Evidence from EMU Countries”, V Meeting on International Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Villarreal (Castellón), 24 y 25 de Septiembre de 2015.
  • “Detection of implicit fluctuation bands in the European Union countries”, XII Workshop on Economic Integration, Universitat de Valencia, Valencia, 26 y 27 de Noviembre de 2015.
  • "Growth dynamic and public debt: An international overview", 81st International Atlantic Economic Conference, Lisboa (Portugal), 16 al 19 de Marzo de 2016.
  • "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility",  23rd Annual Conference of the Multinational Finance Society, 26 a 29 de Junio de 2016., Stockholm University Business School, Estocolmo, Suecia.
  • "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility", 14th  INFINITI Conference on International Finance 2016, 13 a 14 de Junio de 2016, Trinity College Dublin, Dublín, Irlanda.
  • "Connectedness of stress in EMU bank and sovereign CDS", 14th INFINITI Conference on International Finance 2016, 13 a 14 de Junio de 2016, Trinity College Dublin, Dublín, Irlanda.
  • "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility", XVII Jornadas de Economía Internacional, organizadas por la Asociación Española de Economía Internacional y Finanzas (AEEFI) y el Departamento de Economía de la Universidad de A Coruña, A Coruña, 16 a 17 de Junio de 2016.
  • "The European Crisis and Further Integration", 7th global Workshop for young scholars and university faculty, organizado por el Institute For Global Law and Policy (IGLP) de la Universidad de Harvard y el Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales, Ciudad Grupo Santander, Boadilla del Monte (Madrid), del 17 al 23 de Julio de 2016.
  • "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility", World Finance Conference, 29 a 31 de Julio de 2016, Nueva York, Estados Unidos de América.

 


 


Participation in national conferences

  • “An Update of EMU Sovereign Yield Spreads Drivers in Times of Crisis: A Panel Data Analysis”, XVII Encuentro de Economía Aplicada, Gran Canaria, 5 y 6 de Junio de 2014.
  • “Exchange-rate Regimes and Inflation: An Empirical Evaluation”, XVII Encuentro de Economía Aplicada, Gran Canaria, 5 y 6 de Junio de 2014.
  • “Exchange-rate Regimes and Inflation”, XXII Jormadas de Asepuma-X Encuentro Interacional, Málaga, 10 y 11 de Julio de 2014.
  • “El desarrollo de la atención a la dependencia en las Comunidades Autónomas (marco normativo, financiación y cobertura)”, Evaluation for public policies for sustainable Long-Term Care in Spain, Workshop organizado por el Riskcenter y la International Long-Term Care policy Network, Barcelona, 3 y 4 de Julio de 2014.
  • “Exchange-rate Regimes and Growth”, XXVIII Congreso Internacional de Economía Aplicada ASEPELT 2014, Málaga, 22 a 25 de Octubre de 2014.
  • “EMU sovereign debt markets crisis: Fundamental-based or pure contagion?”, V Workshop “EconomíaInternacional: Comercio y Finanzas”, Cátedra de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna 10 y 11 de Noviembre de 2014.
  • "Una exploración sobre la relevancia de la metodología Wavelet aplicada a los bonos soberanos", V Workshop “EconomíaInternacional: Comercio y Finanzas”, Cátedra de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna 10 y 11 de Noviembre de 2014.
  • “Sovereign and Banks in the Euro Area: A Tale of Two Crises”, XI Wookshop en Integración Económica, Grupo de Integración Económica, Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, 27 y 28 de Noviembre de 2014.
  • “Detection of implicit fluctuation bands in the European Union countries”, XVIII Encuentro de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Alicante, Alicante, 4 y 5 de Junio de 2015.
  • “Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries”, XVIII Encuentro de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Alicante, Alicante, 4 y 5 de Junio de 2015.
  • “Growth dynamics and public debt”, VI Workshop “Economía Internacional: Comercio y Finanzas”, Cátedra "Fundación CajaCanarias" de Economía y Finanzas, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna, 9 de Noviembre de 2015.
  • "Volatility transmission between stock prices and exchange rates: A connectedness analysis", VI Workshop “Economía Internacional: Comercio y Finanzas”, Cátedra "Fundación CajaCanarias" de Economía y Finanzas, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna, 9 de Noviembre de 2015.
  • "Sovereigns and banks in the euro area: a tale of two crises", 40 Simposio de la Asociación Española de Economía, Girona, 10 a 12 de Diciembre de 2015.
  • "Portfolios in the Ibex 35 index: Alternative methods to the traditional framework, a comparative with the naive diversification in a pre and postcrisis", 40 Simposio de la Asociación Española de Economía, Girona, 10 a 12 de Diciembre de 2015.
  • "Hedonical Office Rents with Spatial Econometrics: The Madrid case", 40 Simposio de la Asociación Española de Economía, Girona, 10 a 12 de Dicembre de 2015.
  • "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility", Workshop en “Macroeconomía, Economía Monetaria y Financiera”, organizado por el Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE), Madrid, 23 de Mayo de 2016.
  • "Public debt and economic growth: An empirical evaluation", XV Reunión de Economía Mundial, Alcalá de Henares, del 1 al 3 de Junio de 2016.
  • "Public debt and economic growth: An empirical evaluation", XIX Encuentro de Economía Aplicada. Sevilla, 9 y 10 de Junio de 2016.
  • "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility",  XXIV Foro de Finanzas, 7 y 8 de Julio de 2016, organizado por la Asociación Española de Finanzas (AEFIN) y el Centro Universitario de Estudios Financieros (CUNEF), Madrid

 


 


Program Director
 Simón Sosvilla Rivero
Simón Sosvilla Rivero


Members
  • UCM Researchers:
    • Vicente Donoso
    • Asier Minondo
    • Victor Martín
    • Carlos Garcimartín
    • Fernando Alonso

  • Other Researchers:
    • Marta Gómez-Puig (University of Barcelona)
    • Amalia Morales Zumaquero (University of Málaga)
    • Fernando Fernández Rodríguez (University of Las palmas de Gran Canaria)
    • Francisco Ledesma Rodríguez (University of La Laguna)