Institutos Universitarios

Macroeconomic Forecasting

ICAE’s contribution to the FUNCAS’ Forecasts Consensus of the Spanish Economy:

Researcher in charge: Rafaela Pérez Sánchez

The Funcas (Fundación de Cajas de Ahorros) Forecasts Consensus of the Spanish Economy has been produced since 1999, since when the Complutense Institute of Economic Analysis (ICAE) has contributed with forecasts for the main macroeconomic indicators.

The successive editions of the FUNCAS Consensus are available at the following web address:

funcas / coyuntura económica / España / Panel de previsiones    

The consensus which includes the average value for the forecasts of the different macroeconomic aggregates, is widely disseminated in the media, written press and audiovisual media.

The main research services specialising in the preparation of macroeconomic forecasts in Spain participate in the FUNCAS Consensus. The current list of panellist institutions is as follows: Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI), BBVA Research, CaixaBank Research, Cámara de Comercio de España, Centro de Estudios Economía de Madrid (CEEM-URJC), Centro de Predicción Económica (CEPREDE-UAM), CEOE, Equipo Económico (Ee), EthiFinance Rating, Funcas, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE-UCM), Instituto de Estudios Económicos (IEE), Intermoney, Mapfre Economics, Oxford Economics, Repsol, Santander, Metyis, Universidad Loyola Andalucía.

The Consensus is published every two months and includes growth forecasts for Gross Domestic Product and its demand components: Private Consumption, Public Consumption, Investment in Capital Goods, Investment in Construction, as well as Exports and Imports to compose the Trade Balance. It also includes forecasts for inflation, wage costs, employment growth, unemployment rate, the Current Account Balance and the General Government Balance. The panel therefore synthesises the most relevant information on the macroeconomic outlook of the Spanish economy, thus making available on a regular basis a Consensus of Experts that offers a global vision of the economy.

To obtain these forecasts, the ICAE uses the analysis methodology developed by a team of researchers belonging to the Institute. This methodology has been implemented since 1994 in different contexts of scientific dissemination aimed at the general public and the media, and has been focused on forecasting and monitoring the macroeconomic situation of a wide range of economies at an international level. To this end, models are used in which information is collected from a broad group of indicators that allow the state of the economic cycle to be identified in the different sectors of activity and demand, the labour market, prices, the foreign sector and the public sector.