In LUCIFER it will be attempted to:
A) Determine how the structure of the landscape has changed in the last 2-4 decades in fire-prone areas of all the Mediterranean countries of the EU, how fires themselves have contributed to such change, and what role have landscape changes played in promoting fire.
B) Asses whether fires induce a further homogenization of the burned area, hence increasing fire risk.
C) Evaluate the relationship between the patch heterogeneity created by the fire and the postfire flows of soil, water and nutrients from the burned area.
D) Establish the role of burned area (a fire or patches differing in burning severity) on the postfire species dynamics, asses the basis for species change between burns, in particular for rare/endemic species, as well as the potential colonization of burned areas by new species.
Based on past landscapes and fire incidence, models of landscape change and its significance for species dynamics will be developed that could serve to evaluate fire risk and other threats to the ecosystem in fire-prone areas resulting from landscape changes.
To achieve these objectives landscapes will be reconstructed in areas of all EU countries importantly affected by fire. Additionally, fires will be mapped and their occurrence evaluated in relation to con-ditions and landscape structure. Similarly, fire risk will be evaluated in the reconstructed landscapes by using fire behavior models and other fire risk methods. Furthermore, the role of fire in modifying the landscape, either in prefire homogeneous areas or in areas differing in their recent land-use his-tory, will be investigated. This will be done in areas across the southern EU countries by means of field monitoring of the vegetation complemented with remotely sensed data.
The role of spatial patterns produced by fire, either by the burned
area or by patches of fire severity will be objective of particular attention.
Postfire flows of soil, water and nutrients will be related to such spatial
changes in one pilot area. Additionally, how burned areas or patches within
burned areas affect species (plant and some animal groups) maintenance
in the system, with particular attention to rare and endemic species or
to species with an invading potential, will also be investigated. Moni-toring
of species dynamics within burned patches or fires will be conducted also
in areas of the East and West Mediterranean. Case studies for both, invaders
and rare/endemic species, will be made. Finally, knowledge gained will
be integrated through modeling to evaluate future landscapes and their
potential effect on fire occurrence and for species maintenance in fire
prone areas.
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