International Journal of Climatology, 16, 213-227, doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199602)16:2<213::AID-JOC996>3.0.CO;2-7
A Method for the Reconstruction and Temporal Extension
of Climatological Time Series
Francisco Valero, Jesús F. González, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,
and Juan A. García-Miguel
Dpto. Física de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica II,
Universidad Complutense, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid, Spain
A method for the reconstruction and temporal extension of climatological
time series is provided. This method was focused on a combination of methods,
including harmonic analysis, seasonal weights, and the Durbin-Watson (DW)
regression method. The DW method has been modified in this paper and is
described in detail because it represents a novel use of the original DW
method.
The method is applied to monthly means of daily wind-run data sets
recorded in two historical observatories (M series and A series) within
the Parque del Retiro in Madrid (Spain) and covering different time periods
with an overlapping period (1901-1919). The aim of the present study is
to fill up to and to construct a historical time series ranging from 1867
to 1992. The proposed model is developed for the 1906-1919 calibration
period and validated over the 1901-1905 verification period, which includes
the hypothesis of constant ratio of variances. The verification results
are almost as good as those for the calibration period. Hence, the M series
was extended back to 1867, which results in the longest climatological
wind-run data-set in Sapin. Also, the reconstruction is shown to be reliable.