BAMS, 85, 853-872
 

Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER)

Tim N. Palmer, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Renate Hagedorn
ECMWF, Shinfield Park
RG2 9AX, Reading, UK

A. Alessandri, S. Gualdi
Istituto Nazionale de Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Bologna, Italy

U. Andersen, H. Feddersen
Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Copenhagen, Denmark

P. Cantelaube, J.-M. Terres
Land Management Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre
Ispra, Italy

M. Davey, R. Graham
Met Office
Exeter, UK

P. Délécluse, A. Lazar
Laboratoire d'Océanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie
Paris, France

M. Déqué, J.-F. Guérémy
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques
Toulouse, France

E. Díez, B. Orfila
Instituto Nacional de Meteorología
Madrid, Spain

M. Hoshen, A. P. Morse
Department of Geography, University of Liverpool
Liverpool, UK

N. Keenlyside, M. Latif
Max-Planck Institut fuer Meteorologie
Hamburg, Germany

E. Maisonnave, P. Rogel
European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation
Toulouse, France

V. Marletto
Agenzia Regionale Prevenzione Ambiente dell'Emilia Romagna
Bologna, Italy

M. C. Thomson
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)
New York, USA


Multi-model ensembles comprising leading European global coupled climate models show impressive reliability for seasonal prediction of climate. Output is used to predict probability distributions of malaria incidence and crop yield.



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